Demand and Supply of Care Over the Life Course

We project the effects of changes in fertility and mortality rates on both the receipt and provision of care in the UK. We investigate the impact on the level and cost of care, as well as its share of total GDP, through the life course and across income and wealth distributions. SimPaths, an open-source dynamic microsimulation model, is employed to design different scenarios over a half-century period. This framework projects life histories over time, developing detailed representations of career paths, family and intergenerational relationships, health, and financial circumstances. Our estimates show that the value of care, as a share of GDP, almost doubles over the five decades of our analysis, with informal care accounting for most of the projected rise.